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Primary Task Objective:
Model the historical and pre-historical evolution of the bay to develop the structural setting for estuarine processes, provide the basis for predictive modeling, and serve as a guide for restoration planning.
Description: Understanding the impact of urbanization on any ecosystem relies upon the ability to de-convolve natural versus anthropogenic change in the pre-historical and historical (past 100 years) geologic record. The TBEP and its partners identified geologic studies as one of the key missing elements in the long history of research in Tampa Bay, particularly in relation to the on-going restoration activities in Tampa Bay’s Aquatic Preserves. Reliable and credible historical and predictive modeling, and effective restoration planning lies in the ability to accurately evaluate the past.
Modeling the physical and environmental evolution of the bay provides the foundation for identifying and characterizing historical anthropogenic impacts. Of particular importance is the characterization of vegetation evolution; variations in climate (precipitation), which is a control on salinity, organic and contaminant input, and nutrients; and sea level rise which is critical for long-term management of coastal restoration (particularly in the low-lying coastal areas of Florida). Climate also affects sediment type, accumulation rate, and distribution, all of which are important in providing reliable data on the concentration and distribution of contaminants and nutrients though out the bay.
Through a combination of bay-wide sediment core analysis and seismic information, geospatial surfaces will be created reflecting temporal snapshots of environmental conditions (including salinity, temperature, sediment contaminants, nutrients, vegetation distribution, and sea level rise) at key time periods in the pre-historical and historical evolution of the bay. Coarse sampling resolution of cores will identify the historic and prehistoric sediment records, and distinguish between natural and anthropogenic environmental change. High-resolution sampling of the historic sediment record will result in maps of environmental parameters at key time periods in the history of urban evolution in Tampa Bay. These historical geospatial data sets for environmental parameters will be coupled with the urbanization model to identify links between historical anthropogenic activities and changes in the environment. These historical models of urban impact to the environment will provide the foundation for predicting the impact of changing environmental conditions in the future.
We have established a strong partnership with Tampa Bay Aquatic Preserve Managers (FDEP and SWFWMD) undertaking large coastal restoration efforts. Resource managers and Tampa Bay Study scientists will work together using geologic information critical for restoration planning combined with wetland and benthic habitat restoration monitoring and experiments to facilitate the planning of restoration activities.
Subtask Strategic Objectives: Four subtask strategic objective address two focus areas of research: 1) distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic change in the environment and 2) Modeling the historic evolution of the Tampa Bay environment.
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