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Tampa Bay currently does not have a system-wide predictive model for estuarine health. The ability to accurately predict the future of this estuarine system is the ultimate goal of our scientific endeavour and will represent true understanding of the system as a whole. Effective management of the Tampa Bay estuary relies upon the ability to examine the consequences of natural and anthropogenic changes on the ecosystem, and the ability to predict how a change in one system component will affect other system components. This predictive ability can be achieved only by developing an understanding of the interrelation among system components and development of reliable and credible predictive models that aid resource managers in science-based decision making with respect to restoration and regulatory goals. A variety of conceptual, historical and predictive models will be developed, tested, and validated to establish the links among system components and to serve as tools to facilitate effective ecosystem management. The U.S.G.S. has recognised at the national level, that in order to effectively engage in integrated science, we will also have to engage in integrated modeling. We will engage in two approaches to modeling. First, “single-component”, or “one/two-component” historical, conceptual, and predictive models will be developed to address some of the immediate and less complex modeling needs and products. These models will provide a foundation for development of more complex multi-component models and for analysis of complex correlations between system components. These one and two component models address basic processes within a system component. For example, groundwater modeling, urbanization modeling, habitat visualization, sinkhole risk assessment, restoration modeling, and sediment transport address individual system components. Second, concurrently, and with the aid of our many partners, we are laying the foundation for development and validation of a multi-component integrated model (circulation, sediment transport, water quality, seagrass, groundwater) that will link system components and develop holistic, systematic understanding of the Bay.
Tampa Bay has three major shipping ports and approximately 70 miles of dredged shipping channels developed and maintained by the USACE. The relatively shallow depths (average 12ft) of the bay require regular dredging to remove sediments. The TBEP initiated a long-term dredging and dredged material management strategy to minimize impact of dredging activities on bay water, sediment quality, and habitats (Appendix 2). Dredging activities inevitably impact surface water quality, circulation, groundwater flow, sediment and contaminant resuspension and transport, and, by default, coastal and benthic habitats. Effective management of bay-wide dredging activities requires the ability to predict system-wide impacts. Impact of dredged material management provides a focus for the development of a five component integrated model (circulation, water quality, sediment transport, groundwater, and submerged aquatic vegetation) to be used as a predictive management tool for assessing and minimizing impacts. Every effort will be made to develop an integrated model that is 1) applied – used by and for resource management, 2) user friendly – web-based with tools and information for scientists, resource managers, and the general public, 3) supported by and developed in partner with resource managers and state, and local science entities, and 4) proven through rigorous testing, calibration and validation. Upon successful development and testing of an integrated model to address dredged material management issues, the model may then be modified to address other pressing bay-wide issues. For a detailed description on the planning of integrated modeling in Tampa Bay and historical background, see appendix 3. Products and tools resulting from model development will be delivered to target audiences (including scientists, resource managers, and the public) via the http://gulfsci.usgs.gov website. The Estuary Atlas developed in partnership with TBEP and FMRI will serve as a porthole for accessing modeling tools and products.
The tasks and objectives in this study are designed to provide insight into basic system processes and to generate the knowledge, expertise, and data and information for incorporation into all modeling efforts. Objectives for one and two component conceptual, historical and predictive models have been listed in task descriptions and indicated in Table 1. Development of an integrated model will encompass integration of research, monitoring, and data collection exercises from all tasks. Strategic objectives for development of an integrated model are listed below. As the Tampa Bay Study matures and research objectives are completed. Resources made available from completed research objectives will be redirected to the purchase, deployment, and maintenance of fixed monitoring stations required for the calibration and validation of predictive models (see Table 1).
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